Writers in the computer industry have predicted the destruction of Microsoft at every turn. Now that Bill Gates has retired, I’m sure another round of would-be prophets will be heard. Allow me to add my own prognostications.

Let’s start with what won’t kill Microsoft. First, Bill Gates stepping down will not end Microsoft. As has been said for many years, just how much coding has Bill done lately? There are many CEOs and executives capable of running Microsoft.

Vista will not be the end of the company for the very same reason that Windows 95, 98, ME, and XP were (eventually) successful(ish). Vista has some serious issues to be sure, but I think most people have forgotten how awful almost every "1.0" version of any OS or software has been. Vista with SP 2.0 or some other number will be very nice, I think.

Apple will not suddenly gain the lion’s share of the market place. It never has and it never will. Sorry guys. I think it will likely increase the percentage, but not by large numbers. (I like Macs, by the way!)

Linux will not suddenly gain the lion’s share of the desktop market place. Again, we’ll see some increase on the desktop and far more on servers but it will not become a big desktop player any time soon. (I use Linux every day. Please don’t hate me!)

Open Source software will not keep people from buying Microsoft Office. I use Open Office, Firefox, and Thunderbird. I have the Gimp and many other applications on my PC. I’m running into more people who would be considered basic users that are no longer tied to Microsoft or many of the other Big Boys of software. It’s only anecdotal, but I think Open Source applications are getting ready to explode in growth and usage. But this won’t be the end of pay-for applications - not yet, anyway.

Not one of these problems / trends will be the killing blow to Microsoft’s dominance in software or operating system market. Each could be considered a nail in the coffin but it’s a very big lid and will take many nails to hold it down.

So what will be the end of Microsoft?

The end of Microsoft will be the deflation of the entire PC marketplace. Fewer machines will be bought over the next 10 or more years as consumers will no longer see the need to upgrade every three-to-five years. Even component upgrades will decrease. Yes, enthusiasts will continue to purchase the latest and greatest video or sound card or other device but the main stream already is happy with a $400 laptop and makes it last for years.

We’re getting to a point where adding new features doesn’t make sense. My home PC has far more USB ports than I use, for example, and at 3 years old I’m beginning to think "upgrade." But why bother? It runs all my applications, is stable, and I’m cheap.

I think the driving force behind my desire to upgrade, my only real "need" for new hardware isn’t because I need more power to run Vista (I do, but I’m not buying Vista). I need more memory, more processing power, and more video for games.

In the 1980s and early 90s PC power was driven by company needs for number crunching and speed in office applications. Games have always pushed the boundary, however, and in the mid 1990s really began to drive the industry. PC gaming took off and companies scrambled to make "gaming" PCs or "gamer" video cards.

But in the last few years we’ve seen a surge (or resurgence) of gaming consoles. The Nintendo Wii, the Sony Playstation, and Microsoft Xbox are fast becoming the platform of choice for gaming. Don’t believe me? Walk into that gaming store in the mall and tell me how many titles are for the PC compared to all the others? You’ll find a small shelving unit in the middle of the store with about 30 PC games, compared to all the walls and bins filled with console games. Just a few short years ago there was at least a whole wall devoted to PC games. The writing is literally on the wall: Console games rule.

That’s not to say that PC gaming is dead. The PC offers better graphics (on average), customized controls, and a host of other options not available (yet) on consoles. Yet new titles are being released for consoles first and the PC second or not at all, and the graphics advantage is fading rapidly with Hi Def TVs. Those titles available on the PC often require the absolute latest in graphics - often a $300 or more upgrade. What basic user wants to spend that much just to play a game? It’s better to put that money against your console of choice.

So with the console manufacturers expecting at least 5 years before the next version, the need for new hardware drops dramatically. With games taken off the list, PC users won’t need bigger and faster hardware as often, making their existing PCs last longer. That means sales of software drops.

It’s not really fair of me to say that Microsoft is dying. As I stated earlier, Microsoft has weathered storms and trials before and will likely survive this one, too. But things are changing. The question is whether Microsoft can adapt sufficiently to drastically lower sales or not.